How can I make an energy forecast by only using 20 years of total energy consumption data ?

krewsjones

I trust all is doing well.
For masters research program I am trying to determine what the future energy consumption will be after the widespread adoption of electric vehicles using machine learning. I collected 20 years of total data for attributes such as, population, GPD, import, export, employment and total energy consumption. How may I create a forecast using only 20 years of available data? If 20 years is not enough data, how could I possibly simulate data if this is an option?

MartinLiebig

Hi,

the question is: How long do you want to forecast? If you have 20 years of data with monthly data and you want to forecast 3 months ahead - sounds doable. If you have 20 years of data and want to forecast 20 years ahead, good luck.

Also you may want to research Drift or Change of Concept here. Makes a nice chapter in your thesis.

Cheers,

Martin