Confidence of a predeiction

Papad
Papad New Altair Community Member
edited 2024 05 in Community Q&A
Hi everyone,
When I see a prediction in my result like this 

in line 4 I have confidence 1 for loyal , but the prediction is wrong. Does that mean that my model is not so good?
Thanks in advance.
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Best Answer

  • varunm1
    varunm1 New Altair Community Member
    Answer ✓
    Hello @Papad

    The predicted output of a model is based on the confidence value. The model checks the confidence and assigns a label (churn or loyal) based on a threshold of 0.5. In your line 4 we can see that your model thinks that the sample belongs to loyal as the confidence is 1. We can see that your model also gave wrong predictions for line 1 and 3.

    A model goodness depends on its performance metrics like AUC, Kappa etc. Its difficult to determine worth of a model based on single sample.

Answers

  • varunm1
    varunm1 New Altair Community Member
    Answer ✓
    Hello @Papad

    The predicted output of a model is based on the confidence value. The model checks the confidence and assigns a label (churn or loyal) based on a threshold of 0.5. In your line 4 we can see that your model thinks that the sample belongs to loyal as the confidence is 1. We can see that your model also gave wrong predictions for line 1 and 3.

    A model goodness depends on its performance metrics like AUC, Kappa etc. Its difficult to determine worth of a model based on single sample.