"path dependent Decision tree??"

adfeds

So, I have test test data for a number of students. I have the data stored across columns like ID, Test1-score, test2-score, test3-score, and finally the label attribute "Pass Final" which is a binomial (1 or 0). What I am looking to do is force the tree to evaluate the liklihood of passing the final based on how the student did on test 1, and then look at test 2 in relation to test 1 and the final and so on. I've tried ordering attributes, selecting attributes and a number of other things, but I can't seem to find out how to create a path that the tree must follow. It is important because we need to identify at which stage of the students' matriculation through our program should we take them aside for remediation.

Any help will be greatly appreciated. I've also tried to turn the data into a time series list-type or flat-file dataset, but with ID, Test, Date & Score, but Rapid Miner starter edition is choking on the size of the data and it will not load. Thanks in advance.

Allen

MartinLiebig

Okay, i don't get this.

You have trained a decision tree. You apply it, and see if you got ones or zeros. Now you want to know why there is a 1 or a 0?

adfeds

No, the decision trees are looking at, say, test 4, prior to test 1.  Maybe this is simply not done, but I need it to evaluate the tests in order in terms of their liklihood to pass. I'm admittedly a rapidminer noob, so perhaps this type of thing is not done, but I would think their has to be a way to evaluate the liklihood of an outcome based on a a series of gates or tipping points.

MartinLiebig

Maybe it is just me, but your terminology is really different from standard rapidminer terminology. Sounds like Log-Likelihood-Methods for me.

Anyway - Can't you take the confidences of your tree? They are normalized between 0-1 and might be interpreted as a likelihood.